NZ Election - the good oil!

[andrew93]

I'd like to hear people's predictions / thoughts for the forthcoming election.

I'm not seeking political statements for whatever party you support or policy you want to push - just where / how you see this election playing out. I'm sick of reading so much mis-information in the press and so much focus on what are essentially non-issues, but I'd like to hear your thoughts.

In case you are still reading, my thoughts / predictions are:

1) On election night, we will initially see National surge out to a major lead based on the regional blue-voting polling booths closing early, and Labour will claw their way back at the 11th hour like last time with the red-voting large South Auckland polling booths closing later.
2) The Maori Party will win all the Maori seats but less than 5% of the party vote, creating an overhang of up to 3 or 4 seats.
3) National will get 50.1% of the party vote but because of the overhang created by the Maori party et al they will not be able to form a Government, even with the support of Act's 2 seats.
4) Rodney Hide, Peter Dunne and Jim Anderton will return based on winning their electorate seats. Unless the Greens make a major FUBAR they will return on the basis of 5% of the party vote.
5) Peter Dunne will be the ultimate king-maker in a hung parliament.
6) Alternatively, we will see a major party appoint someone from the opposing major political party as house speaker to break the deadlock.
7) Winston. Winston. Winston. So much rides on him winning his seat that once again Tauranga will be a crucial electorate. Has he done his chips or is he the new teflon man? My prediction is that NZ First won't be in parliament in 2009. So a vote for NZ First becomes a wasted vote. Although if he gains support purely on the basis of being the underdog, essentially by Maori voters splitting their votes, he will be home and hosed. Not only will he be the new teflon man, he will also be Lazarus reincarnated!

So in a nutshell this election is about Winston, Peter Dunne, Act and the Maori Party. Oh the joys of MMP!

As Labour and National battle over the middle ground and the differences become somewhat blurred, will we see an increase in the party vote for the more extreme parties (Progressives, Greens and Act)? Or given an average voter's outlook is created during the formative years under the influence of their parents, will we see voters retreat to the two core parties in these uncertain times? And what promises will the major parties make to the Maori Party in order to secure power?

Who knows? Interesting and yet so anti-climatic.....

Cheers
Andrew

[Deane F]

I'll be keeping an eye on the pre-election polls sone by the media companies. So far MMP has returned election results amazingly close to pre-election polling.

Also, as the "Corngate scandal" showed, upsets like that can have quite an effect leading into an election - I'm predicting that John Key's inexperience will show and that he will commit a rollicking faux pas during the campaign which will affect National's result.

[somebody]

I have very little confidence in the NZ public's ability to do the right thing...

[Metla]

Bye Bye Helen, I hope squirrels don't eat your face off.

[Deane F]

I have very little confidence in the NZ public's ability to do the right thing...

By "the right thing" do you mean, "the right thing according to Somebody"...?

(I ask merely for information.)

[somebody]

By "the right thing" do you mean, "the right thing according to Somebody"...?

(I ask merely for information.)

Of course.

A lot of people are very apathetic about domestic politics, and don't seem to care what's going on. My definition of the "right thing" is to be an informed voter, find out about what it means if a particular party gets into government, and making your decision based on that - rather than blindly voting for a party that seems to offer you the best deal.

[Sweep]

I have very little confidence in the NZ public's ability to do the right thing...

I too have very little confidence. In my case though, I have little or no confidence in the politicians rather than the public.

The problem is that, "You can please all the people some of the time, some people all the time, but never all the people all of the time."

[andrew93]

I'll be keeping an eye on the pre-election polls sone by the media companies. So far MMP has returned election results amazingly close to pre-election polling.

Colmar Brunton has historically had National 3% more than the final vote and Labour about the same margin less. Whether or not this is a result of a skewed sample remains to be seen. The latest polls can be seen here:
http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php?pageLoad=44

Also, as the "Corngate scandal" showed, upsets like that can have quite an effect leading into an election

Agreed. Hence you will see 'soft' policies and a certain degree of 'damage control' with absolutely nothing earth-shattering in policy announcements in the coming weeks.

What is the probability the Maori Party and Labour enter into a coalition? And what is the probability the Maori Party and National enter into a coalition?

A

[andrew93]

A lot of people are very apathetic about domestic politics, and don't seem to care what's going on. My definition of the "right thing" is to be an informed voter, find out about what it means if a particular party gets into government, and making your decision based on that - rather than blindly voting for a party that seems to offer you the best deal.

Agreed and IMO if voters knew what some particular parties were really about, then some of the minor parties (or 'personalities') wouldn't have a snowball's chance of returning to the Beehive. We are seeing this with the US election - the commentary seems to be about who 'won a debate' or the candidates' personality/ethnicity etc. - how long until we get there? Or are we already there? Too focused on the figurehead rather than the policies?

Also I suspect people wouldn't bother voting when presented with 2 luke-warm major party choices. Why bother? Labour & National are almost two peas in a pod fighting over the middle ground....

A

[KenESmith]

I don't know who will win the election, I cannot believe NZers are so masochistic that they want another 3 years hard Labour under Helen.
I do however know who will be the losers, irrespective who wins a majority of the seats.

The people of New Zealand