How long before Wellington and the rest of the North Island go into Level 3 Lockdown?

[tweak'e]

More like they are damn scared what will happen to our hospitals if it gets out of control.

In NZ , its running at around a 10% hospitalization rate for covid cases .
We dont have nurses or equipment for more ICU cases . Add to that hospital staff getting stood down after coming into contact with covid cases (as is happening now) , and staff actually getting covid.

It will be a horror show for the unvaxed when covid numbers really ramp up .
It will be a horror show for others needing other hospital treatment .


"if 80 per cent of those aged 5 or over were fully vaccinated - around 75 per cent of the entire country Hendy projects it could cause
just under 60,000 hospitalisations and just under 7000 deaths over a one-year period. "

i think the issue here is hospitals will be over run very quickly, but also ambo services etc.
to add, and i think this compounds it, is it won't be evenly spread. we will get certain communities hit hard and the local resources will be absolutely swamped.
ie having capacity in wellington is no good for some small town in northland.
rural areas will take an absolute hammering.

[CliveM]

Shaun Hendy is an expert in his field. When he runs his model he comes up with both a best case and a worst case result. Assuming his known inputs at the start of the process are correct the real world result will fall somewhere in middle of the two extremes. The news media and our politicians only pick out the worst case version and run with it because that produces the most fear, clicks, votes etc and makes the most money for them. It is never going to happen quite like that.

[1101]

Shaun Hendy is an expert in his field.

define expert.
Hes not a doctor. Hes not a virologist . Hes not in the medical field in any way .

He's a Physicist .

[CliveM]

define expert.
Hes not a doctor. Hes not a virologist . Hes not in the medical field in any way .

He's a Physicist .

I don't need to, you have already done it for me. His expertise makes him more than qualified to construct mathimatical models to consider and advise on all kinds of statistical probabilities on any subject he is asked to comment on. I would not suggest consulting him if you are feeling unwell for a moment

[Zippity]

Expert = "X" - the unknown quantity, "spurt" - a drip under pressure.

[Neil F]

Mobile Vaccination buses should have been introduced and resourced months ago for remoter rural areas such as Northland and West Coast as some people want vaccination but have access problems,
I also am a fervent supporter of Mandatory (Govt needs to regulate this) Vaccination "passports' to be required to enter certain places. That would enable faster businesses recovery , reward those of us who have been responsible and got vaccinated. It would also penalise those who are refusing o get vaccinated - they think their opinions outweigh their responsibility to others.
As an outpatient last Friday I visited a hospital and showed reception my vaccination Card (i had laminated it for protection) . I also have a photo of it on my phone and PC. This is stopgap until Govt makes a digital version available

[wainuitech]

. It would also penalise those who are refusing o get vaccinated - they think their opinions outweigh their responsibility to others.

There's a fine line there between don't want to or cant. I know of a couple of people due to medical conditions CANT get vaccinated.

[1101]

It would also penalise those who are refusing o get vaccinated - they think their opinions outweigh their responsibility to others.

If a minority want to rail against what the majority want and need , then they need to be ostracized from society .
No entry into hospitals (or lowest priorety) , pubs, supermarkets etc .

Of course those that CANT get vax'ed would have doctors certificate stating this & would be considered part of the vaxed community .
If parts of Auckland are at 90% first shot , then those parts of Ak should be in L2 .

[tweak'e]

If parts of Auckland are at 90% first shot , then those parts of Ak should be in L2 .

first shot on its own doesn't do much.
its needs to be 2nd shot, but preferably 2 weeks after 2 shot was done.
the other issue is you can't separate parts of auckland very well. so thats not going to happen.

[B.M.]

first shot on its own doesn't do much.
its needs to be 2nd shot, but preferably 2 weeks after 2 shot was done.