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  1. #31
    tweakedgeek tweak'e's Avatar
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    Default Re: How long before Wellington and the rest of the North Island go into Level 3 Lockd

    Quote Originally Posted by B.M. View Post
    i can't recall exact figures but basically you don't get full immunity with the first jab. hence the need for a 2nd.
    also it takes the body a few weeks to generate that immunity.

    so basically having 90% with first jab doesn't help much (tho better than none) except most who have first will go get the 2nd.
    so changing restrictions based on first jab is pointless.

    the other issue is timing.
    min 3 week wait until 2nd jab and then it takes a few weeks before it works. so thats 5 weeks before it works, which may be way to late.
    covid could spread all the way around the country in 5 weeks.

    don't expect restrictions to be eased any time soon due to vaccination levels.

    also keep in mind they are saying is % of eligible people, not % of total population.
    % of population is what actually counts.
    Tweak it till it breaks

  2. #32
    Senior Member 1101's Avatar
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    Default Re: How long before Wellington and the rest of the North Island go into Level 3 Lockd

    Quote Originally Posted by tweak'e View Post
    i can't recall exact figures but basically you don't get full immunity with the first jab. hence the need for a 2nd.
    .
    And annual top up jabs after that .


    The govt screwed up their new Covid Website
    Just so sloppy . Public depts & IT , allways some issue

    https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/...a-few-minutes/
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/...urity-breaches

    "IT security expert Daniel Ayers told Mike Hoskin a brand new website shouldn't have issues like these.
    "Before it was released to the world, it should have been security tested. Either it hasn't been, or it hasn't been tested properly. I mean, these were problems that were relatively easily found within a few minutes."

    "The testing suggested an outdated software jQuery is being used for the app, which has been known to have at least two security flaws since April last year."

  3. #33
    Old guy
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    Default Re: How long before Wellington and the rest of the North Island go into Level 3 Lockd

    The below item is cut and paste from "The Taxpayers Union news letter" The only comment I would make is that for a lot less cash I would provide a detailed report saying just whatever the Government asked me to say.


    The NZ Herald reports that the Prime Minister's department has awarded Shaun Hendy and Siouxie Wiles's modelling group $6 million in contracts to forecast COVID-19.
    For perspective, Treasury has commissioned its own pandemic modelling from an independent advisory firm costing a mere $30,000.
    Here's what Jordan had to say:
    Te Punaha Matatini (TPM) appears to be acting as the ‘single source of truth’ for this Government, and is getting paid like a greedy monopolist. Given the wild inaccuracies of pandemic modelling around the world, our leaders should be getting advice from multiple agencies and experts, not betting the house on friends of the Government.
    It stinks of arrogance by the Prime Minister’s Department to refuse to answer questions posed by the NZ Herald about the procurement rules followed in awarding the TPM contract. That raises very real questions about this contract, and quite what it was for.

  4. #34
    Senior Member 1101's Avatar
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    Default Re: How long before Wellington and the rest of the North Island go into Level 3 Lockd

    "Shaun Hendy and Siouxie Wiles's modelling group $6 million in contracts to forecast COVID-19"

    no surprises there .
    Govt depts + other peoples money . No accountability on costs .
    There are PLENTY of people in Govt depts more than qualified to do that work. ie forecasting , statistical analysis .

  5. #35
    Senior Member 1101's Avatar
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    Default Re: How long before Wellington and the rest of the North Island go into Level 3 Lockd

    6Mill for some predictions.....

    Look at some of the predictions from last year , seem like total guesswork now.

    " Te Pūnaha Matatini predicted 80,000 deaths even with mitigation strategies, while the University of Otago team forecast 12,600 to 33,600 deaths. Their best possible estimate was 5,800 deaths."
    "Fourteen thousand fatalities. Two-thirds of the population infected.
    Up to 32,000 needing hospital care. Four thousand Kiwis potentially needing ventilators."
    "One scenario has as many as 27,600 Kiwis dying from COVID-19 –a frightening prospect. On the other end of the spectrum, the best-case scenario from epidemiological modelling places the figure closer to 20"

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