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Thread: Covid

  1. #61
    Senior Member baabits's Avatar
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    Default Re: Covid

    Quote Originally Posted by tweak'e View Post
    if you actually read the study
    ahhh yes, citing a summary of a study without actually reading it, one way to quickly fall flat on your face in internet debates

    there seems to be a lot of wild misinterpretation in this paper- looking at their choice of countries and ignorance to the relevant variables.

    Quote Originally Posted by piroska View Post
    Their findings? “While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions.” In short: there was no practical difference in effect between countries that locked down and those that didn’t. Or even shorter: whatever benefits lockdowns give are dwarfed by their enormous costs.
    I think you're reading it wrong and making wild leaps to reach your conclusions. “While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions.” It's saying that total lockdowns aren't any more effective than partial ones- and most countries have been doing half measures, especially the ones cited in this study.

    it also holds up South Korea as 50% of its "successful countries" - not knocking them, they have done a good job in terms of fighting back the virus, but with ways that while are acceptable there might be considered offensive here, and certainly not "less restrictive". full on surveillance is used to log everyone's movements (monitoring of cellphone tower movement, electronic payment transactions and open access to camera networks)and they are extremely easy for authorities to access.

    another thing that is irking about this study is what is the difference between "more restrictive" and "voluntary"? some of the countries cited have cultural differences where communities are emphasized over the individual. take a look at the US- if you have restrictions on gatherings in place and ask people not to do so, a decent portion of the population won't adhere to them, citing their individual autonomy and freedom. conversely, countries like Sweden, almost all will. the focus on policy without considering behaviour writes off those differences.

  2. #62
    tweakedgeek tweak'e's Avatar
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    Default Re: Covid

    Quote Originally Posted by baabits View Post

    another thing that is irking about this study is what is the difference between "more restrictive" and "voluntary"? some of the countries cited have cultural differences where communities are emphasized over the individual. take a look at the US- if you have restrictions on gatherings in place and ask people not to do so, a decent portion of the population won't adhere to them, citing their individual autonomy and freedom. conversely, countries like Sweden, almost all will. the focus on policy without considering behaviour writes off those differences.
    also many asian countries have a much more compliant culture.
    plus look at what happened here before the first lockdown. people stopped going out, shops lost most of their sales. people did their own lockdown.

    there is a lot of factors which a study cannot account for. the old story of crap in = crap out.
    Tweak it till it breaks

  3. #63
    VoidMaster
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    Default Re: Covid

    "The UK is trying to ‘live with Covid’ and yet its people are still dying and still getting sick. Society hasn’t returned to normal":

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/3003...re-new-zealand

    "No country in the world has returned to normal, while at the same time preventing swathes of its people dying or getting sick. No-one has the answer yet, and until someone does, the elimination strategy is by far the best way to go."

    "Even right now in the UK, with 85 per cent of adults vaccinated, daily cases are still more than 30,000 and daily deaths are in the hundreds."
    Last edited by zqwerty; 29-08-2021 at 03:14 PM.
    It's not the least charm of a theory that it is refutable. The hundred-times-refuted theory of "free will" owes its persistence to this charm alone; some one is always appearing who feels himself strong enough to refute it - Friedrich Nietzsche

  4. #64
    tweakedgeek tweak'e's Avatar
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    Default Re: Covid

    Quote Originally Posted by zqwerty View Post
    "The UK is trying to ‘live with Covid’ and yet its people are still dying and still getting sick. Society hasn’t returned to normal":

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/3003...re-new-zealand

    "No country in the world has returned to normal, while at the same time preventing swathes of its people dying or getting sick. No-one has the answer yet, and until someone does, the elimination strategy is by far the best way to go."

    "Even right now in the UK, with 85 per cent of adults vaccinated, daily cases are still more than 30,000 and daily deaths are in the hundreds."
    i think UK stuffed up.
    their case numbers where coming down reasonable well. had they continued with that until it reached low levels like they have had before, add in vaccination, it would have given them a really good position to start relaxing measures.
    but they quit half way through the job. so now they have gone from case numbers going rapidly down, to case numbers increasing moderately and consistently.
    Tweak it till it breaks

  5. #65
    Wrinkly Member! B.M.'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Covid

    I don’t understand the “Money is my God” faction that have come up with the “We’ll have to learn to live with it” doctrine.

    Can they not see that if this virus is left to run rampant they will have no customers because they are all sick or dead. The same applies to Staff, they won’t have any, because they too will be sick or dead.

    If you want to compare the two approaches take a look at NSW v Queensland.

    NSW 1218 new cases over night – Queensland 1 which was in isolation.

    HERE and HERE

    Given they share the same Border I think the figures speak for themselves and shows what different Management can do.

    Unconditional surrender to the Virus is not an option.
    Global Warming is Mann made.

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  6. #66
    tweakedgeek tweak'e's Avatar
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    Default Re: Covid

    Quote Originally Posted by B.M. View Post
    I don’t understand the “Money is my God” faction that have come up with the “We’ll have to learn to live with it” doctrine.

    Can they not see that if this virus is left to run rampant they will have no customers because they are all sick or dead. The same applies to Staff, they won’t have any, because they too will be sick or dead.
    i don't think it will be that bad, but its not going to be as good as they think it will be.
    its the old story of "penny-wise, pound-foolish". most other countries that are fairly open are doing worse economy wise.

    what will it be like years down the track? no idea, just have to wait and see.
    Tweak it till it breaks

  7. #67
    Retired old codger kenj's Avatar
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    Default Re: Covid

    What if everyone was vaccinated?

    Ken

  8. #68
    tweakedgeek tweak'e's Avatar
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    Default Re: Covid

    Quote Originally Posted by kenj View Post
    What if everyone was vaccinated?

    Ken
    worry about it when we get to it.

    trouble is vaccination on its own is not a cure. how things will play out further down the track i don't know.
    will we just open borders and let it run? or will we wait untill everyone else has caught up to us before opening up?
    Tweak it till it breaks

  9. #69
    VoidMaster
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    Default Re: Covid

    A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...t-defeat-delta
    It's not the least charm of a theory that it is refutable. The hundred-times-refuted theory of "free will" owes its persistence to this charm alone; some one is always appearing who feels himself strong enough to refute it - Friedrich Nietzsche

  10. #70
    Senior Member baabits's Avatar
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    Default Re: Covid

    Quote Originally Posted by B.M. View Post
    I don’t understand the “Money is my God” faction that have come up with the “We’ll have to learn to live with it” doctrine.

    Can they not see that if this virus is left to run rampant they will have no customers because they are all sick or dead. The same applies to Staff, they won’t have any, because they too will be sick or dead.

    If you want to compare the two approaches take a look at NSW v Queensland.

    NSW 1218 new cases over night – Queensland 1 which was in isolation.

    HERE and HERE

    Given they share the same Border I think the figures speak for themselves and shows what different Management can do.

    Unconditional surrender to the Virus is not an option.
    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-z...ith-delta.html

    Hoping that we can prove ScoMo wrong on this.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/1261...together-scomo

    Granted, it needs some work. This must be true, though: ScoMo may have just thrown in the sweaty, coal-stained towel on his own country’s elimination strategy. But if there’s anything likely to encourage New Zealanders to rise to a challenge it’s an Australian Prime Minister telling us we can’t do it.

    [At this point let me separate ‘Australian Prime Minister’ from ‘Australians in general’, something I’m sure many Australians in general would also like to do.]

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