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  1. #21
    Senior Member 1101's Avatar
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    Default Re: Weather Forecasts

    Quote Originally Posted by WalOne View Post

    Still hard to beat our own home grown prophet without honour, Ken Ring who continues to provide consistently accurate weather
    Some years back , I downloaded and printed out 2 months of Ken Rings long term forecasts , then ticked off the days it was accurate.
    It wasnt accurate :-)
    Maybee Ak has too much hot air screwing things up .

    Not saying Met Service would be any better with long range forecasts though

  2. #22
    Old guy
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    Default Re: Weather Forecasts

    Ken Ring employs the similar tactics as psychics use. Anyone can make reasonably accurate guess as to what the weather conditions will be in the future and be correct at least 50% of the time.

  3. #23
    Wrinkly Member! B.M.'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Weather Forecasts

    Interesting character is one Ken Ring.

    I donít know his success rate on weather, but I do know he had a sizeable following of farmers in Matamata. They swore by him and planned their hay-making, fertilising etc. on his predictions.

    One scary thing was he got a couple of earthquakes right.

    Talking of alternative weather forecasting, I remember back in 2009, (I think), Queensland had a massive drought.

    One night in the News Channel 9 had an item on a small outback community that had to pack up and leave, as their water supply was from spring and it was dry.

    Anyway, such bad news required Ch9 to send a team to investigate.

    They interviewed this old chap who informed them he wasnít going anywhere, and it WAS going to rain anyway. They would evacuate Brisbane before he left.

    The Ch9 team got back to their Weatherman who confirmed there was no show of rain in the foreseeable future.

    Wouldnít you know it, it pissed down overnight, so next nights news Ch9 have bailed up this old fellow and insisted he explain how he knew it was going to rain and the Met boys didnít.

    He walked them over to old log and advised that heíd been watching the Termites and explained what they were doing that signaled rain.

    I can relate to it because when I spent too much time on the briny I would watch to see where the birds were settling before I anchored.

    I guess Animals, Insects and plants shouldn't be left out of calculations?
    Global Warming is Mann made.

    Do not regret growing older. It is a privilege denied to many.
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    The problems we face today are because the people who work for a living are now outnumbered by those who vote for a living.

  4. #24
    Retired old codger kenj's Avatar
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    Default Re: Weather Forecasts

    My dog was a good weather indicator. When she came inside, if she was wet, it was raining!

    Ken

  5. #25
    Wrinkly Member! B.M.'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Weather Forecasts

    Quote Originally Posted by kenj View Post
    My dog was a good weather indicator. When she came inside, if she was wet, it was raining!

    Ken
    Yes, it's all about observation.
    Global Warming is Mann made.

    Do not regret growing older. It is a privilege denied to many.
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    The problems we face today are because the people who work for a living are now outnumbered by those who vote for a living.

  6. #26
    Wrinkly Member! B.M.'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Weather Forecasts

    I was playing around with the Data from the Norwegian Website trying to work out how they can be right and our guys wrong, most of the time.

    Anyway, I thought Iíd check Tauranga Airport.

    One glance and I thought what a load of proverbial crap.

    Closer inspection showed it hadnít been updated for 3 Days last update being 0900 20/5/2021.

    An Airport no less!

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Global Warming is Mann made.

    Do not regret growing older. It is a privilege denied to many.
    .
    The problems we face today are because the people who work for a living are now outnumbered by those who vote for a living.

  7. #27
    Senior Member piroska's Avatar
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    Default Re: Weather Forecasts

    Quote Originally Posted by B.M. View Post
    I was playing around with the Data from the Norwegian Website trying to work out how they can be right and our guys wrong[/ATTACH]

    So did I. I kept the forecast from both until now. Not a huge difference really but MetService were not wrong.
    They forecasted fine until the wet and windy stuff for the East Coast, which we got and still have.

    Not as badly as other eastern places, but they were not wrong. They also said hawkes bay was to be not as bad.
    Ex-pctek

  8. #28
    Senior Member 1101's Avatar
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    Default Re: Weather Forecasts

    Quote Originally Posted by B.M. View Post
    Interesting character is one Ken Ring.
    He also was predicting dates of aftershocks after the big CHCH earthquakes

    The NZ Skeptics Society was rubbishing him for that , and some of them even went to CHCH on one of the days he predicted, just to mock his predictions .
    Well, he got that day 100% correct , there was an aftershock. The NZ Skeptics didnt acknowledge he got that one correct.

    I think he also published a Banjo Instructional book . :-)

  9. #29
    IT Consultant johcar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Weather Forecasts

    The biggest problem with weather forecasts is that they're not always wrong....

  10. #30
    Rocket Dog WalOne's Avatar
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    Default Re: Weather Forecasts

    Here's a recent post by Ken Ring.

    Wet month looming

    Astrologically speaking, heavy rain around 1 June may begin the month, due to the conjunction of a couple of key planets. Around 12 June, strong winds should start, on the very day that Mercury traverses the Sun, and this will herald the build-up to a gale type storm around the 19th that will cover the North Island with heavy rainfall, again due to a strong conjunction. There may be a dry spell intervening between the 22nd - 25th but more heavy rain arrives around the 26th/27th.
    These three heavy rain events will cover the North Island. Although the weather is expected to extend to the top of the South Island, the rest of the South Island will be much less affected. The threat of heavy weather will not abate until about 11 July.

    Unfortunately, no amount of accuracy will show the skeptic that the principles of the old techniques for forecasting were valid. The moon method is less accurate in determining amounts of rain, which depend on the Sun’s heat and therefore evaporation just prior to the event, whereas lunar cycles are more accurate for event timing. This may vary by 1-2 days, because other factors, unforeseen, and outside our monitoring, may overlay the Moon’s influence temporarily to make weather events early or late.

    I remind readers that I only write for those who gain some benefit from these forecasts, and not for the various skeptics of astrology who have nothing better to do with their lives than to tie their knickers in a twist for absolutely no reason. They have no idea of what they’re talking about but I am grateful to them because they drive heaps of traffic to this site to see what the fuss is all about.

    This forecasting type of astrology has got very little to do with the word as it is used today. I have never done a horoscope for anyone in my life. Real astrology is not concerned with your love life or your star sign; it is simply astronomy. [Emphasis mine - Walone]

    Sir Isaac Newton was an astrologer, he was also an alchemist, a philosopher, and an astronomer. He was tutored in astrology by Descartes. The word “scientist” was invented by William Whewell in 1833, and still not in use until 1890. Before then everything was simply called astrology. Even your doctor had to be a qualified astrologer. Medicine has changed much, but old cures like homeopathy are still revered. Scholars call the University of al-Qarawiyyin (name given in 1963), founded as a mosque by Fatima al-Fihri in 859, the first university. Thus the first universities were part of the Islamic world and taught astrology as it was then known. It is ironic that universities today scorn their own history and pretend that universities have always upheld science. This is sheer bollocks.
    For what it's worth. And now for this forum's naysayers and resident pooh-bahs to take their cue and decry (without the benefit of even reading or attempt to decipher) Ken's words. For those who will faithfully record the dates and actual weather, it may be prudent to keep in mind Ken's forecasts are often made weeks, months and sometimes years in advance. His events are never claimed to be 100% accurate, and in actuality may be several days sooner - or later - than the indicative date(s).
    Last edited by WalOne; 26-05-2021 at 12:41 PM.
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