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  1. #11
    Old guy
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    Default Re: So Much For This Crazy Theory

    Quote Originally Posted by Jayess64 View Post
    Where does the figure of 0.05% come from?
    From the internet which as you will be aware is never wrong. Seriously if you dig down into anyones given statistics that figure is close to correct. It is higher for the already compromised elderly but a lot less for healthy people under 60. Close to nil for the under 20s.
    Remember these are deaths not cases.

  2. #12
    Senior Member 1101's Avatar
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    Default Re: So Much For This Crazy Theory

    Quote Originally Posted by CliveM View Post
    From the internet which as you will be aware is never wrong. Seriously if you dig down into anyones given statistics that figure is close to correct. It is higher for the already compromised elderly but a lot less for healthy people under 60. Close to nil for the under 20s.
    Remember these are deaths not cases.
    actuall figure is approx 1.5% - .5% death rate.
    So far .
    That also doesnt account for long term side effects , which no one knows about yet (as its still in the short term stage) .
    Some have serious ongoing health issues after recovering
    And doesnt account for what might happen when covid completely overwhelms countries health systems. If you cant get hospital treatment (for anything) , the death rate will go up.

    It also doesnt account for the 2nd & 3rd wave , which might (or not) have higher death rates
    With the 1918 Spanish Flu , the 2nd wave was more deadly .
    We dont know what will happen if covid mutates to a more deadly strain (speculation that it cant mutate much)

    The highest population , poorer countries wont be getting or releasing an accurate infection rate & death rate report , so factor a huge margin of error .
    We also dont know if NZ's pacific or Maori population would be suseptable to a much higher death rate. Given NZ's diabeties issues , I suspect it ccovid could have a devastating effect here .
    Last edited by 1101; 25-11-2020 at 11:24 AM.

  3. #13
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    Default Re: So Much For This Crazy Theory

    Quote Originally Posted by CliveM View Post
    From the internet which as you will be aware is never wrong. Seriously if you dig down into anyones given statistics that figure is close to correct. It is higher for the already compromised elderly but a lot less for healthy people under 60. Close to nil for the under 20s.
    Remember these are deaths not cases.
    Depends on whether you "dig down" with a spade or a teaspoon. The current issue of Physics Today (published by the American Institute of Physics) has an article on "The Math behind Epidemics" which discusses the effects and complications behind understanding the spread and consequences of Covid-19. The current estimate of Case Mortality Risk, ie the risk that someone will die if they contract the disease, appears to be around 1%, 20 times higher than the number you give. Applied to a population of millions this represents a lot of people who would otherwise live, even allowing for variables such as age, available treatment etc.

    Everybody will die sooner or later, but this pandemic has subjected societies everywhere to a sudden shock that has stressed medical facilities to breaking point. It can't be dismissed as "just another flu".

  4. #14
    Senior Member 1101's Avatar
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    Default Re: So Much For This Crazy Theory

    and lets not get into the arguement of covid deaths because of unrelated health issues .
    If you are very unhealty & die after covid, its covid that killed you .

    In the US, the covid death rate is like having a 911 event every day . So that puts the US's response in some perspective with past events .
    Last edited by 1101; 25-11-2020 at 11:31 AM.

  5. #15
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    Default Re: So Much For This Crazy Theory

    Quote Originally Posted by Jayess64 View Post
    Depends on whether you "dig down" with a spade or a teaspoon. The current issue of Physics Today (published by the American Institute of Physics) has an article on "The Math behind Epidemics" which discusses the effects and complications behind understanding the spread and consequences of Covid-19. The current estimate of Case Mortality Risk, ie the risk that someone will die if they contract the disease, appears to be around 1%, 20 times higher than the number you give. Applied to a population of millions this represents a lot of people who would otherwise live, even allowing for variables such as age, available treatment etc.

    Everybody will die sooner or later, but this pandemic has subjected societies everywhere to a sudden shock that has stressed medical facilities to breaking point. It can't be dismissed as "just another flu".
    All good points as are 1101's above. While I am in full agreement with the need to exercise all comon sense precautions to avoid catching Covid or for that matter any other avoidable disease I dd not see any requirement to be paranoid about it.

  6. #16
    Wrinkly Member! B.M.'s Avatar
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    Default Re: So Much For This Crazy Theory

    Here’s one for you. HERE

    What column do we adjust HERE Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Worldometer.jpg 
Views:	28 
Size:	11.6 KB 
ID:	10593
    Global Warming is Mann made.
    .
    The problems we face today are because the people who work for a living are now outnumbered by those who vote for a living.

  7. #17
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    Default Re: So Much For This Crazy Theory

    My eldest daughter lives in Stockholm and has done so for 4 years. Despite the standard Swedish approach over the past several months she has acted with caution -not level 4 lockdown avoidance of any contacts but tried to avoid big crowds etc. So far that has proved effective.

  8. #18
    VoidMaster
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    Default Re: So Much For This Crazy Theory

    Sweden's coronavirus plan failed to stop the virus, and a vaccine may not be enough to 'rescue' them, experts warn:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-...olicy/12922932
    It's not the least charm of a theory that it is refutable. The hundred-times-refuted theory of "free will" owes its persistence to this charm alone; some one is always appearing who feels himself strong enough to refute it - Friedrich Nietzsche

  9. #19
    tweakedgeek tweak'e's Avatar
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    Default Re: So Much For This Crazy Theory

    Quote Originally Posted by CliveM View Post
    All good points as are 1101's above. While I am in full agreement with the need to exercise all comon sense precautions to avoid catching Covid or for that matter any other avoidable disease I dd not see any requirement to be paranoid about it.
    absolutely there is no need to be paranoid about it. its just a matter of understanding and doing what is necessary.
    however the catch is people don't do that. in my experience its really common for people to not understand it and down play it. even to the extent of making BS up to justify not doing anything about it.
    then when they suffer the consequences of their actions, they blame everyone else and demand a magic pill that will fix all their problems.

    many people will simply make up excuses. unfortunately in the modern era they go around convincing others of their excuse. if others believe it then it must be true.

    eventually most will finally understand but typically the damage has already been done.
    this is why the more compliant societies tend to do so well in these situations.
    Tweak it till it breaks

  10. #20
    Wrinkly Member! B.M.'s Avatar
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    Default Re: So Much For This Crazy Theory

    Now HERE'S a guy showing leadership.

    Kim Jong Un ordered executions amid frantic efforts to control coronavirus!
    Global Warming is Mann made.
    .
    The problems we face today are because the people who work for a living are now outnumbered by those who vote for a living.

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