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  1. #1
    Modulator Greg's Avatar
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    Default America's trade war

    From yesterday's NZ Herald, Trump is playing a US$100 billion game of poker, and I reckon the best outcome of this will be first the US consumers suffering, and then the fallout to small nations like ourselves who depend heavily on trade. I kinda doubt that China will give much of a toss whether their own people have to endure more hardship.

    But serious concerns remain, both for markets and trading nations like New Zealand.

    There is a risk that Trump's brinkmanship backfires. If China doesn't back down and so far it hasn't then he may be forced to escalate things further as he chases his political result.

    In fact there are already reports out of Washington that he plans to do just that - seeking a further US$100 billion in tariffs.

    There is also a risk that his motives are actually genuine - and therefore much crazier and more damaging to the global economy.

    Either way, both these scenarios could see an escalation of trade wars to levels which would start to hurt the US and Chinese economies, with a flow-on to global trade and growth.

    That would be bad news for New Zealand but ultimately most of the direct pain would fall on consumers in the US and China.

    That brings us back to the war of attrition.

    If the American consumer is expected to bear the brunt of that alone then I don't like Trump's chances.

    If the rest of the world Europe, Japan, the UK, Canada and Australia - fell into line behind the US then it might be a fair fight.
    Bugger the cancer. I'm suffering from terminal inertia.

  2. #2
    Senior Member piroska's Avatar
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    Default Re: America's trade war

    Hmm, seems like the writer is saying it's bad unless we all join in with Trump, then it's just fine.

    I think not.
    Nor does trumps actions mean we also have to hate china.
    Ex-pctek

  3. #3
    Modulator Greg's Avatar
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    Default Re: America's trade war

    I think the author's main point is that Trump is a blimmin **** stirrer, and only wants to get more work and profit for US industry = votes. As for us hating China, I doubt that enters Trump's mind; why would he give a toss. Our Chinese relations will hopefully improve and if we have a trade fallout with USA then we sure want to maximise our friendship with China.
    Bugger the cancer. I'm suffering from terminal inertia.

  4. #4
    VoidMaster
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    Default Re: America's trade war

    Chinese workers have always been poorly paid with no Unions, it was inevitable that the corporations would exploit the cheap labour and move industries off-shore to asia and China, Trump is pissing into the wind.

    To late to turn around the last 40 years of economic mis-management by the Neo-conservatives unfortunately, all loyalty to country lost and only love of money ruling the play, how could it be anything else but disaster for the middle-class, surprised they did not see it earlier.

    Heaps more hardship on the way as we are all pulled down to the lowest common denominator living standards by the actions of the unbridled "market" and greedy businessmen.
    It's not the least charm of a theory that it is refutable. The hundred-times-refuted theory of "free will" owes its persistence to this charm alone; some one is always appearing who feels himself strong enough to refute it - Friedrich Nietzsche

  5. #5
    VoidMaster
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    Default Re: America's trade war

    It's not the least charm of a theory that it is refutable. The hundred-times-refuted theory of "free will" owes its persistence to this charm alone; some one is always appearing who feels himself strong enough to refute it - Friedrich Nietzsche

  6. #6
    ember BBCmicro's Avatar
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    Default Re: America's trade war

    Quote Originally Posted by zqwerty View Post
    Heaps more hardship on the way as we are all pulled down to the lowest common denominator living standards by the actions of the unbridled "market" and greedy businessmen.
    +1

    except that I don't blame businessmen - I blame the economists. Economists still haven't realised that free-market competition doesn't work in a global economy.

    Competition is fine when one country competes with another but when you have a global economy there needs to be some other global economy to compete against, and there isn't any

    In that situation, if you continue to insist on competition you end up competing against yourself. And if you do that, some parts of you are going to win and some parts of you are going to lose. Unfortunately there are always more losers than winners. We end up with a few rich people getting richer and a lot of poor people getting poorer
    Ryzen 7 1700 @ stock, EVO 960 500GB M.2 NVMe, G-Skill 2 x 16GB @ 2.4GHz,
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  7. #7
    VoidMaster
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    Default Re: America's trade war

    Yes it just goes back to the way it always was, the powerful exploiting the weak.

    Our civilization, such as it was is being dismantled in the name of catch-phrases like, efficiency and productivity, survival of the fittest, sink or swim and many other simplistic but plausible ways to proceed in life and here's another one: devil take the hindmost, as if we cannot rise above behaviour of acting out this social Darwinism and behave like adult modern human beings, especially in a country like NZ which has hardly got started yet.
    Last edited by zqwerty; 08-04-2018 at 04:54 PM.
    It's not the least charm of a theory that it is refutable. The hundred-times-refuted theory of "free will" owes its persistence to this charm alone; some one is always appearing who feels himself strong enough to refute it - Friedrich Nietzsche

  8. #8
    Senior Member baabits's Avatar
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    Default Re: America's trade war

    Funny, Overlord Xi announced the other day that they would start pulling back the auto tariffs and begin to open up to make importing goods easier.

    I guess it's hard to play poker with someone who just flips the table over.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1HH084

  9. #9
    Senior Member piroska's Avatar
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    Default Re: America's trade war

    Quote Originally Posted by zqwerty View Post
    Our civilization,: devil take the hindmost, as if we cannot rise above behaviour of acting out this social Darwinism and behave like adult modern human beings,.
    But we all ARE acting like adult humans.
    Human just have an incorrect and exaggerated sense of our one smartness, niceness and importance.

    We still just screaming chimps.


    Watching Jane Goodalls doco a while ago, she said she was constantly struck by how like us, they were.
    Er...no...how like them, we are, she meant.
    Ex-pctek

  10. #10
    Senior Member 1101's Avatar
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    Default Re: America's trade war

    Quote Originally Posted by zqwerty View Post
    ... greedy businessmen.
    yep, blame everyone else. Self interest , narrow outlook, ignore global realities . Self interest : thats our natural monkey/animal instinct
    Where were your shoes , phone, clothes , car made ? China & poorer asian contries.
    So you are supporting the greedy businessman & supporting sweet shops and child labour . But lets blame others instead .


    Its a world market for labor now. Wages will eventually level out worldwide .
    Instead of blaming the 'greedy' busenessman, why not blame the 'greedy' workers whose wage & benefit demands & poor attitude drove so many business's into the ground
    with out of control demands & refusal to compromise. cough cough Aus Car industry: it was union(ie the worker) attitudes that were the last straw for that industry.

    Lets look at the greedy uncaring NZ/US workers , who from self interest wouldnt pay the extra for local made goods, and drove industries in a race to to lowest possible
    price via asian based sweet shops .
    As NZ moves towards farming & tourism as our source of overseas income , we'll move towards the low av wage those industries have worldwide. Just a matter of time.

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