I hope like crazy that the NZ Government will prosecute and imprison those idiots who readily and deliberately break today's travel boundary restrictions.
Why the hell should the rest of us suffer because of their arrogance?
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I hope like crazy that the NZ Government will prosecute and imprison those idiots who readily and deliberately break today's travel boundary restrictions.
Why the hell should the rest of us suffer because of their arrogance?
Not going to happen, they are Jacinda's mob friends according to those that know.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zippity
Harry Tam and a lady of the night! Bastards!
Ken
odds are it will spread throughout NI easy enough. there is simply no way to police areas and there is plenty of people actively trying to get through illegally.
it will be lockdown NI soon, but i suspect it will be a weak lockdown.
the problem in auckland is they let off the restrictions to early and now its away.
get the jab because covid is coming to your street very soon.
my guess at the mo is expect restrictions for the next few years minimum. the more people that are jabbed the less restrictions that will be applied.
vaccination does work well just on its own. there will be restrictions, just how many depends on you.
I wonder how many turned up for the $150 grocery voucher jab had their 2 jabs already.
Talk about WOKE nonsense. :groan:
Let’s look at it this way.
You’re a Car, and as such you need to have a Registration and Warrant of Fitness before you can leave your shed and go on the road.
Ok, so turn that into Covid Terms, and Humans have to have a Registration to say you have been fully Vaccinated, and a WOF to say they have a Negative test for Covid.
Failing that you stay in your shed!
Now, there is the small matter of my Consultancy Fees. :)
Yet car dealers can sell you a supposedly road ready new car then ask you to pay onroad costs, what a joke that is as it means the car isn't actually road ready.Quote:
Originally Posted by B.M.
Better yet how about we join the rest of the world in getting vaccination up and give up on these lockdowns.
+1Quote:
Originally Posted by piroska
higher the vaccination rate is the less restrictions we will need. its that simple.
plus i would love to beat aussie.
There is a family down here on holiday from Whangarei, they left before the latest lockdown so have done nothing wrong, yet they nearly got flamed on our local Farcebook page. Thankfully the admins shut down the posts pretty quick
theres certainly no need to go flaming them.Quote:
Originally Posted by gary67
however its a good reminder thats covid is just a plane flight away.
i suspect it will spread NI fairly quickly now. SI might hold off for a while.
get the jab done before it gets there.
Will Covid-19 be like the Black Death?
Hardly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zippity
That killed half the population, more if you count all the times it popped up and not just the 1300s one.
Also people had no idea of the cause, never mind cures. It still happens now and then now, but antibiotics fix it.
Exactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by piroska
And by the time C19 has run its course, millions will have died due to their ignorance and refusal to get vaccinated. :(
I'm afraid my thoughts on that are. "Tough shite, they made the choice"Quote:
Originally Posted by Zippity
Ken ;)
Vaccination does not stop you either catching or passing on covid. I does they say reduce your chances of ending up in hospital.
more like spanish flu. tho higher more dense population and covid is much much worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zippity
on the plus side is we actually know what it is and know how to kill it. we also have vaccines and better hospitals.
well actually it does reduce the ability to pass on covid.Quote:
Originally Posted by CliveM
technically its 75% reduction in transmission. however real world results will vary greatly depending on the amount of un-vaccinated people and population density.
this is why they are pushing so hard to get everyone vaccinated. its like having lockdown on covid without people being lockdown. i'm sure everyone wants that.
also because it reduces the spread, your less likely to catch it in the first place.
however its not a fix. its only 75% reduction at best, so with the amount of non-vaccinated around, other measures will be needed.
hopefully if we get high vaccination rates, the other measures will be minor.
More like they are damn scared what will happen to our hospitals if it gets out of control.Quote:
Originally Posted by tweak'e
In NZ , its running at around a 10% hospitalization rate for covid cases .
We dont have nurses or equipment for more ICU cases . Add to that hospital staff getting stood down after coming into contact with covid cases (as is happening now) , and staff actually getting covid.
It will be a horror show for the unvaxed when covid numbers really ramp up .
It will be a horror show for others needing other hospital treatment .
"if 80 per cent of those aged 5 or over were fully vaccinated - around 75 per cent of the entire country Hendy projects it could cause
just under 60,000 hospitalisations and just under 7000 deaths over a one-year period. "
They say drinking immediately after getting the vaccine reduces the efficiency. Could the same be true for defeating covid?
i think the issue here is hospitals will be over run very quickly, but also ambo services etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1101
to add, and i think this compounds it, is it won't be evenly spread. we will get certain communities hit hard and the local resources will be absolutely swamped.
ie having capacity in wellington is no good for some small town in northland.
rural areas will take an absolute hammering.
Shaun Hendy is an expert in his field. When he runs his model he comes up with both a best case and a worst case result. Assuming his known inputs at the start of the process are correct the real world result will fall somewhere in middle of the two extremes. The news media and our politicians only pick out the worst case version and run with it because that produces the most fear, clicks, votes etc and makes the most money for them. It is never going to happen quite like that.
define expert.Quote:
Originally Posted by CliveM
Hes not a doctor. Hes not a virologist . Hes not in the medical field in any way .
He's a Physicist .
I don't need to, you have already done it for me. His expertise makes him more than qualified to construct mathimatical models to consider and advise on all kinds of statistical probabilities on any subject he is asked to comment on. I would not suggest consulting him if you are feeling unwell for a moment :)Quote:
Originally Posted by 1101
Expert = "X" - the unknown quantity, "spurt" - a drip under pressure.
:)
Mobile Vaccination buses should have been introduced and resourced months ago for remoter rural areas such as Northland and West Coast as some people want vaccination but have access problems,
I also am a fervent supporter of Mandatory (Govt needs to regulate this) Vaccination "passports' to be required to enter certain places. That would enable faster businesses recovery , reward those of us who have been responsible and got vaccinated. It would also penalise those who are refusing o get vaccinated - they think their opinions outweigh their responsibility to others.
As an outpatient last Friday I visited a hospital and showed reception my vaccination Card (i had laminated it for protection) . I also have a photo of it on my phone and PC. This is stopgap until Govt makes a digital version available
There's a fine line there between don't want to or cant. I know of a couple of people due to medical conditions CANT get vaccinated.Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil F
If a minority want to rail against what the majority want and need , then they need to be ostracized from society .Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil F
No entry into hospitals (or lowest priorety) , pubs, supermarkets etc .
Of course those that CANT get vax'ed would have doctors certificate stating this & would be considered part of the vaxed community .
If parts of Auckland are at 90% first shot , then those parts of Ak should be in L2 .
first shot on its own doesn't do much.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1101
its needs to be 2nd shot, but preferably 2 weeks after 2 shot was done.
the other issue is you can't separate parts of auckland very well. so thats not going to happen.
:confused: :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by tweak'e
i can't recall exact figures but basically you don't get full immunity with the first jab. hence the need for a 2nd.Quote:
Originally Posted by B.M.
also it takes the body a few weeks to generate that immunity.
so basically having 90% with first jab doesn't help much (tho better than none) except most who have first will go get the 2nd.
so changing restrictions based on first jab is pointless.
the other issue is timing.
min 3 week wait until 2nd jab and then it takes a few weeks before it works. so thats 5 weeks before it works, which may be way to late.
covid could spread all the way around the country in 5 weeks.
don't expect restrictions to be eased any time soon due to vaccination levels.
also keep in mind they are saying is % of eligible people, not % of total population.
% of population is what actually counts.
And annual top up jabs after that .Quote:
Originally Posted by tweak'e
The govt screwed up their new Covid Website
Just so sloppy . Public depts & IT , allways some issue
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/...a-few-minutes/
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/...urity-breaches
"IT security expert Daniel Ayers told Mike Hoskin a brand new website shouldn't have issues like these.
"Before it was released to the world, it should have been security tested. Either it hasn't been, or it hasn't been tested properly. I mean, these were problems that were relatively easily found within a few minutes."
"The testing suggested an outdated software jQuery is being used for the app, which has been known to have at least two security flaws since April last year."
The below item is cut and paste from "The Taxpayers Union news letter" The only comment I would make is that for a lot less cash I would provide a detailed report saying just whatever the Government asked me to say.
The NZ Herald reports that the Prime Minister's department has awarded Shaun Hendy and Siouxie Wiles's modelling group $6 million in contracts to forecast COVID-19.
For perspective, Treasury has commissioned its own pandemic modelling from an independent advisory firm costing a mere $30,000.
Here's what Jordan had to say:
Te Punaha Matatini (TPM) appears to be acting as the ‘single source of truth’ for this Government, and is getting paid like a greedy monopolist. Given the wild inaccuracies of pandemic modelling around the world, our leaders should be getting advice from multiple agencies and experts, not betting the house on friends of the Government.
It stinks of arrogance by the Prime Minister’s Department to refuse to answer questions posed by the NZ Herald about the procurement rules followed in awarding the TPM contract. That raises very real questions about this contract, and quite what it was for.
"Shaun Hendy and Siouxie Wiles's modelling group $6 million in contracts to forecast COVID-19"
no surprises there .
Govt depts + other peoples money . No accountability on costs .
There are PLENTY of people in Govt depts more than qualified to do that work. ie forecasting , statistical analysis .
6Mill for some predictions.....
Look at some of the predictions from last year , seem like total guesswork now.
" Te Pūnaha Matatini predicted 80,000 deaths even with mitigation strategies, while the University of Otago team forecast 12,600 to 33,600 deaths. Their best possible estimate was 5,800 deaths."
"Fourteen thousand fatalities. Two-thirds of the population infected.
Up to 32,000 needing hospital care. Four thousand Kiwis potentially needing ventilators."
"One scenario has as many as 27,600 Kiwis dying from COVID-19 –a frightening prospect. On the other end of the spectrum, the best-case scenario from epidemiological modelling places the figure closer to 20"