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mr_rix
19-08-2004, 06:42 PM
Weather here in Masterton = Horrible

2ft of water on State Highway 2

My Rural Delivery postie of 14 years has been killed! She was always friendly, helpful and very fast. I know I will miss her.

School damaged.

Ick.

zqwerty
19-08-2004, 09:26 PM
Expect more as time goes on, as a system held in dynamic stability by a feedback loop is continuously taken to the edge of its loop stability by internal changes sooner or later it will go out of lock periodically and produce large scale instabilities. Global warming is a misnomer, what is actually happening is just more extremes all over the world. Have a look at phase lock loops and how they operate. A sin wave is just a square wave with an applied feedback loop.

Hope that is not too cryptic, but don't want to be too verbose or brevity will suffer.

Laura
19-08-2004, 09:49 PM
You guys in the lower part of the North Island have everyone's sympathy, I'm sure.

Certainly in this Dunedin household we've followed the saga of your postie since first knowing she was missing (we have rural delivery when in Central Otago & know how conscientious these deliverers are) and are sad about the outcome.

Plus of course the dreadful flooding (second time this year for some) can't help but promote sympathy from anyone who's ever had their house inundated - and should do so from anyone who's ever wondered how they'd cope if it happened to them.
No wonder you're fed up. Who wouldn't be?
But lots of the rest of the country are thinking of you all.

Terry Porritt
19-08-2004, 10:20 PM
Gaia seems to be losing the race with humans, for a while I thought HIV may do the trick.

The worlds population needs to be reduced by a factor of up to about 5 times to bring back stability, but I'm afraid it is now too late...........aagh....lies gasping on the floor from CO2 asphyxiation.

TonyF
19-08-2004, 11:27 PM
> The worlds population needs to be reduced by a factor
> of up to about 5 times to bring back stability
We now need some interesting suggestions as to how this might be achieved.....

Murray P
19-08-2004, 11:36 PM
> > The worlds population needs to be reduced by a
> factor
> > of up to about 5 times to bring back stability
> We now need some interesting suggestions as to how
> this might be achieved.....
>


Well Tony, we've got the yanks on the job haven't we. 2nd generation of Bush's (where are the Reagan kids?) and I'm sure they've bread some more of the same ilk. All we need now is to keep the other extremists rolling along and, sooner or later something really, very, serious is going to hit the fan.

Cheers Murray P

metla
19-08-2004, 11:39 PM
> > The worlds population needs to be reduced by a
> factor
> > of up to about 5 times to bring back stability
> We now need some interesting suggestions as to how
> this might be achieved.....
>



War.
Famine.
Disease.

Laura
20-08-2004, 12:58 AM
Lot of interesting stuff here about the world's population.
(OK Terry, you started it )
Frankly, I see no correlation between population numbers and the current flooding - much of it in rural areas with few people.
Maybe some of you got your threads wrong?
Those who want to have a go about population numbers, start another one...because this sure isn't giving much support to those people who've lost everything & are in crisis mode right now.
I expect we have more PF1ers than the original poster who've had major problems.?

I hoped my post would start some more support from others - not go away into abstract land (Obviously nobody read the bit about:*how would I feel if it happened to me?* Smug fellers, who know it won't, eh?)

For those involved, this isn't an academic exercise - it's real life they have to deal with now & for a long time to get back to normal.
.
Wake up & get real before you post.!

zqwerty
20-08-2004, 01:16 AM
It's a world-wide problem manifesting in a local area, I think, unfortunately, that we are going to see much more of it. One hundred year events will probably become commonplace. Wait until China really gets going.

zqwerty
20-08-2004, 01:34 AM
Poor old Gaia:

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/19/markets/oil/

Laura
20-08-2004, 01:36 AM
Read the first post again.
Were comments like that what he was asking for - under the circumstances?

I hoped my last post made it clear that support for the North Island was what was needed right now, not abstract predictions of gloom from Christchurch.

Sorry you didn't read it before you posted....

kiwibeat
20-08-2004, 01:36 AM
Its worse in America Florida area there is about $15 billion of damage caused by one hurricane so global warming is definitely having a effect we are sure to get extremes in the future as well so buy a house high up and well away from streams or potential landslips had my fence blown over last saturday by a wind gust in excess of 140km

Laura
20-08-2004, 01:44 AM
Now there's someone who IS entitled to comment - a Wellington feller with fence blown away last Saturday.
(And the nosey bit of me says: "But that was before the real crap weather happened. What happened on Tuesday/Wednesday?).

zqwerty
20-08-2004, 01:52 AM
Yes I did read it but I decided to ignore your advice because I think that a wider view is required than merely commiserating with local victims of a global phenomenon. Everybody in the world is in some way responsible for what is happening and putting your head in the sand will not make it go away.

Laura
20-08-2004, 02:44 AM
That's an interesting thought (I'm ignoring for the moment your apparent lack of sympathy for the flood victims, as I hoped would be expressed by PF1ers).
So we are all responsible for this, are we?
Well, I reckon I can live with my efforts so far.(and I'm a rural landowner)
What are your own plans?
Obviously nothing to do in reality with people who might get flooded?
It's really easy to get guff off websites about what MIGHT happen: often those have nothing to do with reality.

mr_rix
20-08-2004, 08:27 AM
I've been extremely lucky in the fact the water never came up as high as to enter the house.

I believe Linda's husband, Les is going to take over the mail run eventually.

Yeh, what is with all this controlling the population crap? This post was off topic in the first place.

Anyone else here live in the Wairarapa?

Steve_L
20-08-2004, 08:47 AM
Yep - another Masterton man here. Linda's husband Les has been the bus driver for my wife's school kids and he is a really nice guy. About the flooding - it seems to me that all roads that get flooding should have depth marker posts. Linda probably drove through thinking it was not too deep. Do you know if a depth marker post was there?

Can see some blue sky this morning and the rain has stopped. About time!

Sb0h
20-08-2004, 09:39 AM
Has anyone stopped for a moment to think that weather change may not be linked to human population growth at all. We could be experiencing a natural cycle....remember the ice age people?! The human race has been monitoring climate for a miniscule time compared to the life of our planet. I don't buy into the "global warming causes all our weather problems" line. We could just be entering a "transition phase" with wild swings in climate prior to a major climate shift. Don't believe everything you read, scientists are still guessing at this stage no-one really knows what is going on, we can only draw conclusions from a very limited range of observations.

Unfortunately the general scientific opinion is that we will see this kind of freakish weather more regularly.

andrew93
20-08-2004, 10:00 AM
Interesting point sb0h - I agree that we do have a very limited amount of data so it is hard to draw correct conclusions - for example, how do the councils etc come up with "1 in 100 year drought" or 1" in 100 year flood" statements when they haven't been keeping records for 100 years? Although, I can't help but think that we are impacting the environment and we are in some way responsible for the freakish weather.

No direspect to the original poster or the deceased postie but Terry wasn't very off off topic at all with his reference to Gaia (suggested reading : Issac Asimov, Foundation series). I heard an interesting thought the other day : "The earth has caught a virus (being humans) and is now trying to rid itself of it". IMHO there will be worse to come.

Murray P
20-08-2004, 11:20 AM
Yes I agree that sympathies should have been expressed to the victims of the flooding first and those affected my, belated, sympathies go to them (not that I was un-sympathetic before).

But, there is a wider issue and for those of us close to the action for the second time this year, you have to ask wider questions as to why the apparent increase in extreme weather systems. On a smaller scale what has happened to the maintenance and "improvement" of our infrastructure, ie; roads, bridges, rail, stormwater and sewage systems, water ways control, coastal protection, soil conservation/forestation (or de-forestation).

NZ has a distinct lack of foresight and people willing or capable to turn the shambles we have around. The flooding, in many instances, is due to a lack of funding for research, management (standards, regulation & expert bums on seats) and construction in all the areas above. When entities like MOW, DSIR, Forestry, NZME, etc, where sold, split up or killed off, the experience and expertise they contained was not by and large devolved to the new crown entities or corporations in any coherant way, the scramble to user pays and profits took care of that because such people and their fascilities are expensive to maintain and the payoff is long term or not immeditaely apparent. "Public good" and "duty of care" are no longer in the vocbluary of the entities charged with managing and building our infrastructure. A snapshot of this can be seen in the construction industry with one of the symptoms being the so called "leaky building syndrome" which has more cause rooted in people than buildings and water.

So, next time there is a storm with associated consequences ask yourself could any of those consequences have been mitigated?

Cheers Murray P

Cheers Murray P

Terry Porritt
20-08-2004, 12:28 PM
I appologise for bad taste, sorry.

pulling hair out
20-08-2004, 12:58 PM
As with most people, I really feel for those affected up in Masterton.

I also agree with Murray P regards a lot of responsibility for the effects of these severe weather conditions.

Is it really the amount of water that fell, that is the real problem?

Or is it the Local Councils, Regional Councils, Power Industries, etc, who tamper with the natural flow of rivers that exacerbate disasters.

A river will always eventually find its own route again, may take a few years but will happen. We are all being encouraged to speak maori, governments are returning land [rightfully] to the maori etc. Fine, I agree with that.

But, why is the Government not emphasising and encouraging one of the best aspects of Maori culture, that is respect for the land and its waterways.

I just hope that Councils will one day put people at the top of the list, and use them for guidelines - not the big industries, pressure groups etc.

regards, Marg.

Winston001
20-08-2004, 02:40 PM
My sympathies too for the people in Masterton and elsewhere who have suffered from devastating flooding over the past 6 weeks.

Here in Southland we have had our fair share of this kind of misery in the past and my heart goes out to you all.

Winston001
20-08-2004, 03:00 PM
To pick up on SbOh and other's comments, we really don't know much about climate. Our science and records are only about 100 years old world-wide.

These so-called cataclysmic events are no more than the normal weather pattern for the planet. There are two differences from the past:

1 We can now measure and record events

2 The human population is approx 6 billion today.

In the past, populations were much smaller, more sparse, and scattered. Thus a hurricane may kill a dozen but few other people learned of the tragedy. Because we now live in crowded populations, today hundreds are killed by the same event and through instant television, the world knows of the horror.

The sun, in a typical solar flare, puts out more energy than we release into our environment in a year. Mans efforts are pretty puny.

Straightening rivers, insisting on building on flood-plains, and on unstable ground all contribute far more to our current tragedies than the myth of global warming.

Unfortunately, politicians find it much easier to blame the bogey-man of global warming, than to tell communities to face up to the realities of nature.

Just my 2c (or tuppence) ;)

andrew93
20-08-2004, 04:24 PM
> Just my 2c (or tuppence) ;)

:D nice one Winston - did you add this to the other thread?

zqwerty
20-08-2004, 06:21 PM
Seriously, do you honestly believe that the fact there are more human beings alive now than have ever been born previously in the whole of Earth's history has no bearing on the rather extreme weather events we have been experiencing in the last 25 years.

Winston001
20-08-2004, 07:49 PM
Do I believe it? Yes. Do I know? No.

In the 1960s scientists considered Earth was entering another ice-age. Today, the common currency is the planet is warming up.

We simply don't know.

In the face of that, logic suggests applying Occams Razor - the most simple solution is also the most likely. Thus the weather we experience has normal extremes but we exaggerate it. Because there are simply more of us being affected.

Man certainly affects the surface of the planet through the distribution of poisons. Heavy metals, some heavy isotopes, long-chain polymers in plastics and sprays. These are far more lethal than weather events which may only be the natural changes due to an impending ice-age.

Nobody really knows. So its worth debating because what might initially seem obvious, is less certain on detailed consideration.

I'm no scientist - I just read about this stuff. Other views are welcome. ;)

Murray P
20-08-2004, 11:22 PM
Winnie, you say that one of the reasons scientists have come up with a theory on global warming is that they now have the ability to measure the weather, I would add to that by saying more accurately now than ever before. In fact the weather can now be measured historically and measurements compiled for millions upon millions of years of weather patterns. Not a day by day postcast sure but, that is not what is required when trying to acertain trends and precedent for the type of events we are experiencing now. On a histroical basis the weather is changing more rapidly than ever before without the assistance of a catastropic event such as large scale volacinic activity or asteroid strike.

Something is going on, that's for sure. We need to understand these changes and, although by no means a gimme, the global warming theory is the best one we have thus far in the absence of any plausible alternatives. What we don't need to do is clamber back down the evolutionary chain, and crawl back into our caves, to solve the challenges that are andoubtedly facing the earth and its inhabitants. IMO, we have to think it out then act in a considered way.

In the meantime we have to ensure the best possible chance for the survival of people and to me, that means putting a priority on addressing issues here in NZ while not ignoring what is happening in the wider world.

One thing about the perceived increased severity of the flooding now than in the past. I don't believe that it is true that that perception is soley derived from the fact that there is now a much larger population and someone to record the event. Ask a farmer in a flood prone area what happens to rivers after their catchment area has been denuded of trees. During a wet period and in particular during a storm, vast amounts of the soil from the catchment is washed down and raises the beds of the rivers on the plains. The next wet you have will not have to be as severe as the previous to cause the same amount of flooding and so on. Some rivers in NZ are now so altered they will never go back to their former state but they will eventually find a natural balance, just at a cost to those that are near them.

That's my 2 cents worth, we're building up a bit of a kitty ;) now what could we do with that.

Cheers Murray P

Sb0h
20-08-2004, 11:44 PM
Yes humans have an impact on the environment....is it the root cause of all weather issues as the media would have us believe?? No I don't think so.

The atmosphere is a very complex and chaotic system and there are a huge number of possible interactions between compounds both natural and man-made. As an example look at the ozone hole....it could very well be a naturally occurring atmospheric phenomenon yet because we now know it is there and it has grown larger over the past 20 years it MUST be because of human intervention. Come on 20 years, 50 years, 100 years....the earth is millions of years old and we are looking at a tiny portion of that, the truth is we don't have the observations to back the theory up.

Yes we have proof that certain chemicals and pollutants can change the composition of the atmosphere and we should try to minimise this. Yes we should be more responsible with our treatment of the environment. But be assured there will be more storms, there will be more chaos and it may just be a normal occurance and something we can do very little about.

Winston001
21-08-2004, 01:11 AM
This is great. I agree completely with SbOh and partially with Murray. Well expressed views guys.

Murray - we have macro data about the earth's weather from ice-cores etc. But not micro daylong events. Not possible to find.
But I certainly agree we shouldn't shrug and ignore Mother Earth. We need to modify our behaviour in terms of pollution, and treasure the ecology.

Again on a micro level, removal of trees causes floods. And possibly less rain too. But that has nothing to do with global warming.

Consider what we live under. The atmosphere is 40,000m thick. Plus the troposphere. It sounds a lot but it's actually very thin. About the same as a sheet of paper wrapped around a tennis ball.

What is the greatest influence on the atmosphere? The Sun. Only 93 million miles away, close in solar terms and slamming inconcievable numbers of photons, neutrinos, electrons and other particles against us every second. Honestly, our efforts are feeble beside that.

zqwerty
21-08-2004, 10:16 AM
Dream on.

Terry Porritt
21-08-2004, 10:56 AM
I will have to reply to Winston. It is precisely because the atmosphere is so thin that the effects of 6 billion or whatever people is dramatic.

Air pollution in the northern hemisphere now completely encircles the earth. I shudder to think what the effect of 1.5-2 billion Chinese will have when they achieve the same energy usage per capita as the US.

When I revisited UK back in 1990, I was horrified to see this brown smog haze looking out to sea down in Devon. It wasnt there when we left in the 1970s, it always used to be crystal clear air out to the south-west, which is where the prevailing winds come from.

Overpopulation is the worlds biggest problem, this is what I was refering to in my first post, and to which Laura understandably took exception to. It was tasteless in the context of the original post However it was in response to zqwertys analogy of the earth having a feed back mechanism to help stabilise the climate, not the original post.


Sorry, but as Zqwerty says dream on those folks who think we are not killing the earth with our activities.

mark c
21-08-2004, 11:08 AM
Totally agree with you Terry Porritt, read an article that the air in Britian is equally dirty everywhere now. No point heading for the dales for a freshen up. :(

Murray P
21-08-2004, 12:21 PM
> Murray - we have macro data about the earth's weather from ice-cores etc. But not
> micro daylong events. Not possible to find.

Exactly what I was saying

> Again on a micro level, removal of trees causes floods. And possibly less rain too. But
> that has nothing to do with global warming.

Yes, I thought that was what I said, maybe not with enough precision. I followed on and expanded on the theme of my earlier post, or so I thought.

> What is the greatest influence on the atmosphere? The Sun. Only 93 million miles
> away, close in solar terms and slamming inconcievable numbers of photons,
> neutrinos, electrons and other particles against us every second. Honestly, our
> efforts are feeble beside that.

I would go a step further and say the sun is the greatest influence there is on the planet as a whole, not just the atmosphere but, there are alot of other factors that interact with the sun and influence the narrow band of conditions that make life possible for us on this planet. We are starting to learn about the bounds of these factors and the tiny changes that will have apparent and far reaching consequences which while they are not significant enough to kill off the planet are certainly enough to make life impossible for me and you and a heck of alot of our fellow carbon based inhabitants. Is global warming going to get us, is it just a natural cycle that may have been bolstered by our activities? Like you I have no idea but, and talking generically, we cannot ignore the possibilities, research and therefore knowledge is our friend while in the meantime some risk management is prudent. Which again leads to wider human questions re the place of the UN, developing countries vs established industrialised, agriculture and industry, trade, health, etc, as per the suns influence there are other factors that are intertwined that cannot be addressed in isolation.

Is there a working specification for sorting all this out, something that allows the issues to broken down into manageable bites without losing the wider objectives? I don't think so, not a coherent workable one anyway and that is a failure of vision we may well rue one day.

Cheers Murray P

Winston001
21-08-2004, 07:35 PM
Fair enough. If this discussion has made a few people consider the issues more deeply, then we've achieved something.

I acknowledge that ignoring the global warming theory could have perilous results. I actually support it in the sense that it means humanity is trying to modify its destruction of the global ecology. Destruction of rainforests, fisheries etc. If we save Mother Nature because of a later disproved theory, balance will nevertheless be achieved.

Murray P
21-08-2004, 08:35 PM
Agreed.

Funny thing about theories, they must be able to be disproved to be valid/viable.

Cheers Murray P

zqwerty
27-08-2004, 10:40 PM
Latest news:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3597584.stm

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_33/b3896001_mz001.htm

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/187956_climate26.html

metla
27-08-2004, 11:22 PM
> Sorry, but as Zqwerty says dream on those folks who
> think we are not killing the earth with our
> activities.

Thats funny.

We're not killing the earth at all,in the grand scale of thing we are just a blip,us and our effects will be shaken off by the earth like a flu.

Ultimatly its a non-event,Life will carry on in some form on this planet untill conditions can no longer suport it.

Elephant
27-08-2004, 11:33 PM
> Yes I did read it but I decided to ignore your advice
> because I think that a wider view is required than
> merely commiserating with local victims of a global
> phenomenon. Everybody in the world is in some way
> responsible for what is happening and putting your
> head in the sand will not make it go away.

Are you suggesting that I, ( being part of the world population ) happen to be responsible for the weather.

Are you into Chaos theory then? If a butterfly spreads its wings in Brazil then this may be responsible for floods in some parts of New Zealand?

I could even be responsible for floods in Bangladesh couldn't I?
It's been happening for yonks.

We have Earthquakes on the coast of California from time to time. We in New Zealand have had the Napier earthquake 1931 I think and Inangahua in my lifetime. Not sure what year there.

Am I responsible for my next door neighbours children as well? They were the people whom elected to actually concieve and have the children I speak of.

Thanks Laura for your post.

For me I have a certain amount of sympathy for people who for no fault of their own happen to be in unfortunate circumstances.

Laura
27-08-2004, 11:58 PM
Lots of food for thought there, zquerty.

Interesting to see the differing approaches to global warming taken by scientists & business people in different parts of the world - but ending up with similar warnings of the need for action.

zqwerty
28-08-2004, 12:00 AM
Multiply yourself and all the resources that you use each day by:

http://www.ibiblio.org/lunarbin/worldpop

and then tell me that human beings are having no influence on the weather.

Elephant
28-08-2004, 12:11 AM
> Multiply yourself and all the resources that you use
> each day by:
>
> http://www.ibiblio.org/lunarbin/worldpop
>
> and then tell me that human beings are having no
> influence on the weather.

So should all human beings go then?

What about the butterfly in Brazil? :-)

zqwerty
28-08-2004, 12:22 AM
I thought the butterfly was on the prairies and stampeded bison.

zqwerty
28-08-2004, 01:04 AM
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0GER/is_2002_Spring/ai_84866411

zqwerty
28-08-2004, 01:06 AM
Last link won't work because it is too long, can't be bothered figuring out what GF said to do to get round this problem.

pulling hair out
28-08-2004, 12:16 PM
Hi zqwerty

Here (http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0GER/is_2002_Spring/%20ai_84866411)

try this
Copy the bracketed bits from left hand column in Formatting options.
Paste into your reply box.
Between the url= and the ] insert full address of site including Http://
Then between the ] and the next [ you type: Here eg. ]Here[
The last bit [/url] is already there.
That's the only way I can get it to work properly.

Anyway, I just copied and pasted the site you had typed and put it in the address box in firefox clicked enter and got the site just fine.

regards Marg.

tommy
28-08-2004, 12:52 PM
> Last link won't work because it is too long, can't be
> bothered figuring out what GF said to do to get round
> this problem.

Have a look at this post (http://pressf1.pcworld.co.nz/thread.jsp?forum=1&thread=50739&message=306850&q=#306850) for an explanation.

zqwerty
28-08-2004, 01:43 PM
Thanks Marg and tommy, I was tired last night, I just didn't want to deal with minutiae, I thought that a computer should deal with all this tedious stuff, why can't this be automated?

zqwerty
28-08-2004, 01:46 PM
PS Still raining here in Christchurch, this is the wettest two weeks I can remember in 31 years.

arnie
28-08-2004, 02:49 PM
feel for u zqwerty

All my relies in Ch Ch are moaning & groaning too, while we have sat here in Nelson for the last couple of weeks with mostly fine calm clear weather as it is today. Watch the Car rally on TV3 tomorrow it should still be good.

stu120404
28-08-2004, 02:54 PM
> I thought that a computer should deal with all this tedious
> stuff, why can't this be automated?

It is because of the forum software and how it handles long links, most other forum software I know of can handle long links ok.