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View Full Version : OT: Machines vs Humans (i.e. Terminator)



KiwiTT
25-07-2003, 11:50 AM
This has been debated in Matrix and Terminator films, amongst others. According to this calculation, we have about 100 years to wait before computers are as good as humans and possibly another 100 to make it as small as a human brain and be portable.

The calculation
" A Pentium 4 has 55,000,000 transistors with 3 connections each, we have around 1,000,000,000,000 neurons and 100,000,000,000,000 connections

Therefore a current supercomputer with 1,000 cpus will have 55,000,000,000 units with 3,000 connections giving 165,000,000,000 units of processing power.

We have 1,000,000,000,000 units with 100,000,000,000,000 giving 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 units of processing power.

Therefore compare;
165,000,000,000 with
100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

If processing power doubles every 1.5-2 years (moores law) it will take 100 years or more to reach this level assuming we don't evolve

And remember we are smaller than a house and potable too !!!"

Kame
25-07-2003, 02:40 PM
Interesting,

Although a bit far fetched too, one thing computers can't do is think, that's why errors are caused by humans. If they could successfully get a computer to think then we've lost all hope.

Other than that, they are sure going to out calculate any human since their specialty is number crunching.

bmason
25-07-2003, 03:02 PM
Your calculations are flawed because you are trying to directly compare two very different structures. A CPU is a serial design while the brain is massively parallel.

Simply multiplying the number of connections by the number of units does not give a meaninful measure of processing power. Esp. in the case of the CPU.


A less flawed comparison would be to treat each neuron as performing a floating point operation (combining its input firing rates to give an output fireing rate).

IIRC the average firing rate of a neuron is around 1000Hz. That would give the brain a computing power of:

1e12 * 1e3 = 1e15 floating point operations/second. Or a million giga FLOPs.

Assuming a P4 can do around 1 giga flop. My maths gives 2000 years for intel to catch up with evolution.

And then it would still be lacking any significant ability to learn.

/AI student with too much time.

metla
25-07-2003, 03:20 PM
lost all hope?

of what?

is it a given that once a computer becomes self-awere it will destroy its makers?


i'm still trying to figure out why skynet in t3 immediatly attacked mankind.....

KiwiTT
25-07-2003, 03:57 PM
Excellent: Effectively no machine-rule for 2,000 years.

Your calculation is much better !!!

I simply put mine together to raise a point in a discussion with a colleague and thought it was worth sharing wityh the forum. I forgot to include instructions per second in my comparison, which yours does.

This makes us 'mere' humans way better than any machine for at least 2,000 years.

flying_green_leprachaun
25-07-2003, 06:03 PM
& what about the possibility of a design revolution. Not to long ago, physics was going to be all over "in a year or two" then along comes Curie, Einstein, Fermi amoung others.

I am of the opinion that as computers do become more powerful, they will aid in the design of more efficient computers, they already do...

I anticipate that there will be some major advances in neural networks design, that will result in non human intelligences within my life time, or at the very least the lifetime of my children.

I also expect that we will teach them about life in our world like we do own offspring. Heres hoping we advance socialogically at a similar pace to a technological evolution.

Eventually we entrust our flesh and blood children to move into the future. Personally I wouldnt find it abhorent to have my intellectual children share that future.

flying_green_leprachaun
25-07-2003, 06:05 PM
heres a good example that machines have hope ;-) (http://slashdot.org/articles/03/07/25/0223217.shtml?tid=133&tid=186&tid=96&tid=99)

vk_dre
25-07-2003, 10:04 PM
Even if we have 2000 years or 200,000 for machines to eventually be superior than us, we must realise that it will happen sooner or later and probably for the best of humanity and we must also realise that no rebellious machines or systems like the Matrix or Terminator will be poppping up for a *long** long* time. :D

So i'm takin it easy till then and as Arnie says "I'll Be Back" :D

cheers,
v.K

DangerousDave
25-07-2003, 10:51 PM
hiya...
just watched bladerunner in english, quite a good movie. I think it started the whole idea of human's vs. machines(filmed 1982 i think). With the replicant's it became more survival and self defence than really killing

- David
p.s. boo ha, deckard is a replicant!!!! :o