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johcar
12-01-2011, 10:41 AM
Weren't we told by the Metservice weather-guessers in November/December that we would have a wetter-than-usual summer?

Haven't had a lot of rain in Auckland recently (not that I'm complaining) - maybe Queensland is getting our weather....

wainuitech
12-01-2011, 11:25 AM
They can keep it thanks :)

They have been having a lot of rain in November/December, which according to This site (http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Australian-Floods-La-Nina-Wreaks-Havoc-On-Australia-Writes-Sky-News-Weather-Presenter-Isobel-Lang/Article/201101215891088?lpos=World_News_First_World_News_F eature_Teaser_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15891088_Australian_Floods%3A_La_Nina_ Wreaks_Havoc_On_Australia_Writes_Sky_News_Weather_ Presenter_Isobel_Lang) is caused by a La Nina - opposite to El Nino weather pattern.

xyz823
12-01-2011, 11:44 AM
It's been raining down here a lot.

It's actually raining atm :D

pcuser42
12-01-2011, 11:45 AM
Not raining here, but apparently it's raining in Temuka (as darkstar09 mentioned)

pctek
12-01-2011, 11:46 AM
They did?
A strong La Niña in the tropical Pacific is expected to persist into early autumn 2011, says the NIWA National Climate Centre. La Niña conditions are likely to ease during the autumn.

Late summer (January to March) temperatures are very likely to be above average for the time of year, for most districts of the country, apart from eastern districts of both islands where average or above average temperatures are likely.

Seasonal rainfall is likely to be near normal or below normal in the western South Island, normal or above normal in the eastern North Island, and near normal elsewhere. Soil moisture levels and river flows during January–March are likely to be near normal in all regions, according to the National Climate Centre’s latest seasonal outlook.

The seasonal outlook states that mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal over New Zealand and to the east of the country, for the three months as a whole.

Tropical cyclone activity is likely to be near- or above-normal this season (through to May 2011). The risk of an ex-tropical cyclone passing close to New Zealand is slightly above the long-term average. On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 500km of New Zealand in 9 out of 10 cyclone seasons.

Overall Picture

Temperature:

On average for late summer (January-March), temperatures are likely to be average or above average in eastern regions and are very likely to be above average elsewhere. Sea surface temperatures are presently near normal around New Zealand, and are expected to become warmer than normal over the coming three months.

Rainfall, soil moisture, and river flows:

Seasonal rainfall is likely to be near normal in most districts, but normal or above normal in the eastern North Island and normal or below normal in the west and south of the South Island. Late summer soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be near normal in all regions.



Regional predictions for the next three months:

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty:

Temperatures are very likely to be above average. Seasonal rainfalls, soil moisture levels and river flows are all likely to be in the normal range.

Probabilities are assigned in three categories; above average, near average, and below average. The full probability breakdown is:

xyz823
12-01-2011, 11:53 AM
Not raining here, but apparently it's raining in Timaru (as darkstar09 mentioned)

Fixed for ya :D

Although it probably is raining in tka too.

pcuser42
12-01-2011, 11:55 AM
Fixed for ya :D

I did mean Temuka - I know someone who lives down there.

xyz823
12-01-2011, 12:06 PM
I did mean Temuka - I know someone who lives down there.

:blush:

johcar
12-01-2011, 12:19 PM
They did?
A strong La Niña in the tropical Pacific is expected to persist into early autumn 2011, says the NIWA National Climate Centre. La Niña conditions are likely to ease during the autumn.

Late summer (January to March) temperatures are very likely to be above average for the time of year, for most districts of the country, apart from eastern districts of both islands where average or above average temperatures are likely.

Seasonal rainfall is likely to be near normal or below normal in the western South Island, normal or above normal in the eastern North Island, and near normal elsewhere. Soil moisture levels and river flows during January–March are likely to be near normal in all regions, according to the National Climate Centre’s latest seasonal outlook.

The seasonal outlook states that mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal over New Zealand and to the east of the country, for the three months as a whole.

Tropical cyclone activity is likely to be near- or above-normal this season (through to May 2011). The risk of an ex-tropical cyclone passing close to New Zealand is slightly above the long-term average. On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 500km of New Zealand in 9 out of 10 cyclone seasons.

Overall Picture

Temperature:

On average for late summer (January-March), temperatures are likely to be average or above average in eastern regions and are very likely to be above average elsewhere. Sea surface temperatures are presently near normal around New Zealand, and are expected to become warmer than normal over the coming three months.

Rainfall, soil moisture, and river flows:

Seasonal rainfall is likely to be near normal in most districts, but normal or above normal in the eastern North Island and normal or below normal in the west and south of the South Island. Late summer soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be near normal in all regions.



Regional predictions for the next three months:

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty:

Temperatures are very likely to be above average. Seasonal rainfalls, soil moisture levels and river flows are all likely to be in the normal range.

Probabilities are assigned in three categories; above average, near average, and below average. The full probability breakdown is:

Not sure where you got that pctek, but I suspect it's the usual "oops,-original-predictions-not-looking-like-they're-correct,-so-let's-change-our-position-and-hope-no-one-notices" position.

I distinctly remember a wet forecast, because I am very conscious of the weather for cycling. I was peeved (pointlessly) at the time, because we had had such a crap winter for riding, I was looking forward to some dry, warm weather riding (which we're now getting copious amounts of).

gary67
12-01-2011, 12:46 PM
Not raining here although we are having a few cloudy days, might not hold on to our sunshine crown this year depending on what's happening in Blenheim. Meant t rain tonight though but I doubt it will

pctek
12-01-2011, 12:57 PM
Not sure where you got that pctek, but I suspect it's the usual "oops,-original-predictions-not-looking-like-they're-correct,-so-let's-change-our-position-and-hope-no-one-notices" position.

.
From the MetService.

But as you know, it's hard to predict a week ahead, never mind a whole season.

They just published the yera in review, hoteest, wettest, drieset, windiest etc. Interesting.
There's a overall summary on their site too.

Having been subjected to the revolting Akld humid jungle weather again and talking to people down there - who had hail the other day and were turning heaters on, I've noticed the extremes a bit more lately.

Digby
12-01-2011, 01:15 PM
We have had a couple of bits of rain over the last month or so. Not much really.

Those weather guys should pay the salary back.

They come on tv sounding like Professors and telling us what is going to happen.

They cant even forecast 2 days head let alone 2 months.

Just tell us that there is an El Nina or a La Nino and we'll work it out.
And can someone please change the names of those weather patterns they are so hard to differentiate.

johcar
12-01-2011, 02:21 PM
We have had a couple of bits of rain over the last month or so. Not much really.

Those weather guys should pay the salary back.

They come on tv sounding like Professors and telling us what is going to happen.

They cant even forecast 2 days head let alone 2 months.

Just tell us that there is an El Nina or a La Nino and we'll work it out.
And can someone please change the names of those weather patterns they are so hard to differentiate.

Or La Niña and El Niño (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o-Southern_Oscillation) - easy to remember which is which.

La Niña (the feminine one) is COLD: just like the look SWMBO gives you when you arrive home to tell her you've just <insert something related to your favourite hobby here>... :D

tuiruru
12-01-2011, 03:22 PM
You forgot to mention La Ninja - that's the one that creeps up on you without you noticing, knocks you around a bit and finally kicks you in the stomach! :thumbs:

pctek
12-01-2011, 03:32 PM
To start with, consider that there are about 1019 m3 of air in the troposphere, and to perfectly predict the weather we would need to know the temperature, moisture, pressure, etc., of all of it. And a second later, all of that information would be outdated. That's not to mention the influence of the stratosphere, the large influence of the ocean (down to considerable depth when accounting for vertical transport) as well as the topography and conditions of the surface (e.g. snow and ice cover, soil moisture, albedo, and surface roughness).
To incorporate all of those data into a computer model which could generate a weather forecast would be the next obstacle, assuming there were even a computer capable of handling that amount of data. We don't know everything there is about the atmosphere and its dynamics, so we can't write computer model algorithms to correctly simulate its physics. Additionally, the atmosphere is stochastic and behaves chaotically, which means that we cannot necessarily make predictions given accurate initial conditions. There is even some thought that the atmosphere cannot be mathematically described by the physics we're most familiar with.
So consider that our data are extremely poor in quality and spatial and temporal coverage relative to the description in the first paragraph, and that we are a long way from the computing capacity to even generate a good forecast even if we were better able to understand the way the atmosphere works. This doesn't mean that it's hopeless, or that all forecasters are equally inept. There is definitely skill in forecasting, and experience helps a lot

As to how far ahead it is practical to forecast, there’s a high degree of accuracy up to about three days. But after that, for four to seven days ahead, forecasts are less reliable.

johcar
12-01-2011, 03:39 PM
<snip>There is definitely skill in forecasting, and experience helps a lot

<snip>

In the good old days 'forecasters' were known as a shamans or soothsayers.

And got about the same amount of guesses correct.

They took payment and were successfully able to 'explain away', and this led to the beginnings of financial advisors, politicians, priests and meteorologists (including 'climatic disruption' experts)....

wotz
12-01-2011, 04:23 PM
Forcasting went out the window when they did away with the mk 1 eyeball instrument. These electronic stations never seem to get it right. "Its sunny", where mk 1 eyeball would see there is 80% cloud cover.

Marnie
12-01-2011, 04:48 PM
...and here's me thinking they licked their finger and stuck it out of the window.

wotz
12-01-2011, 05:08 PM
...and here's me thinking they licked their finger and stuck it out of the window.

Half right. Just not out the window.

tuiruru
12-01-2011, 05:14 PM
Maybe the pics below explain why Mexico get good weather and the Middle East doesn't ;)

bellbird
12-01-2011, 05:27 PM
Cold, windy, wet and only 10deg here at the mo.

Lawrence
12-01-2011, 05:53 PM
Don't speak to soon

Tropical Cyclone Vania has just formed north of NZ http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/

Been watching here http://www.met.gov.fj/ the last few days (3 daytropical cylone outlook) ,only formed into a cyclone in the last hour

Does not mean it can hit nz as they can wander anywhere

Metservice 7 day Rainfal has it tracking here http://metservice.com/towns-cities/tauranga

WalOne
12-01-2011, 06:00 PM
They took payment and were successfully able to 'explain away', and this led to the beginnings of financial advisors, politicians, priests and meteorologists (including 'climatic disruption' experts)....

:clap


"Its sunny", where mk 1 eyeball would see there is 80% cloud cover.

:clap


...and here's me thinking they licked their finger and stuck it out of the window.

:thumbs:


Half right. Just not out the window.

:lol:


Maybe the pics below explain why Mexico get good weather and the Middle East doesn't ;)

especially the last one!

Billy T - this thread needs to go in your Monday special ...

Lawrence
12-01-2011, 06:07 PM
The best Weatherperson http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWm8R_NVpCw

Lurking
12-01-2011, 07:07 PM
Weren't we told by the Metservice weather-guessers in November/December that we would have a wetter-than-usual summer?

Haven't had a lot of rain in Auckland recently (not that I'm complaining) - maybe Queensland is getting our weather....

Used to travel to Auckland from sunny Christchurch, 4 times a year for accounting conferences and it seemed to be always raining, so what's gone wrong up there ? too many pacific islanders bringing their sunshine south.

Lurking.

zqwerty
16-01-2011, 12:12 AM
Roman rise and fall 'recorded in trees'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12186245

New Evidence for Climate Impacts on Ancient Societies

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/01/110113082627.htm

B.M.
16-01-2011, 07:46 AM
Roman rise and fall 'recorded in trees'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12186245

New Evidence for Climate Impacts on Ancient Societies

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/01/110113082627.htm

:lol: Really should be in Monday’s Jokes, but who pays these dorks to come up with these Earth Shattering conclusions.

I liked this bit.

Roman rise and fall 'recorded in trees'
They found that periods of warm, wet summers coincided with prosperity, while political turmoil occurred during times of climate instability.

And this.

Global Warring: Climate Change Could Be The Root Of Armed Conflicts (July 10, 2007) —

Fair go, well even if it were true, so what?

It’s high time Governments throughout the World stopped wasting Tax Payers money (if indeed this is where the money is coming from) for this useless research.

It’s mostly inconclusive speculation and of no consequence anyway. :rolleyes:

gary67
16-01-2011, 09:23 AM
Roman rise and fall 'recorded in trees'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12186245

New Evidence for Climate Impacts on Ancient Societies

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/01/110113082627.htm

Pretty obvious warm wet weather and your crops grow well you can eat and be replete. The weather drys up or some other cataclysmic event affects your crops your hungry, can't feed the kids, the wife is giving you hell so you raid your neighbour because his crops did grow. Nothing scientific about it, it's natures survival of the fittest

Digby
16-01-2011, 09:31 AM
Pretty obvious warm wet weather and your crops grow well you can eat and be replete. The weather drys up or some other cataclysmic event affects your crops your hungry, can't feed the kids, the wife is giving you hell so you raid your neighbour because his crops did grow. Nothing scientific about it, it's natures survival of the fittest

Especially when you didn't have a refrigerator.

I saw a doco a while ago on Estonia and it said they have an annual cheese festival that goes way back to celebrate the cheese season. The reason cheese was so important is that it was a way of storing food for the winter.

But I do think these scientists are coming up with this research to justify their wages/contracts etc.

Digby
16-01-2011, 09:34 AM
@Tuiruru

Great Spotting.

Photo 2 - those are certainly Grande Betos.

Photo 4 - Fredag (top left in blue ?)

And we are stuck with Tamati !

(Although Toni Stephenson and Rene are not bad)

Digby
16-01-2011, 09:38 AM
Now there is flooding in South Africa.

coldfront
16-01-2011, 11:16 AM
Weren't we told by the Metservice weather-guessers in November/December that we would have a wetter-than-usual summer?

Haven't had a lot of rain in Auckland recently (not that I'm complaining) - maybe Queensland is getting our weather....

Wait for it!

Up until December 16th where I live was looking to be the driest december on record in the week that followed it averaged out and then the heavy rain of the 28th blasted it to the wettest in 35 years.

So on the law of averages you could get the entire months rainfall or more in one day and still be the wettest month on record. Even though the other 30 days of January were dry!

Couple of cyclonic weather patterns and shi`ll be right.:p

Anyways whens Niwa ben that right for a long range forecast when they struggle to get a prediction 3 days out?

gary67
16-01-2011, 07:14 PM
Aha found the flaw in your plan, its not NIWA who do the weather forecasting its metservice

BobM
16-01-2011, 09:33 PM
Look out Tues - Wed, top area of the South Island. My piece of seaweed is getting very, very soft. :D

tuiruru
17-01-2011, 09:21 AM
@Tuiruru

Great Spotting.

Photo 2 - those are certainly Grande Betos.

Photo 4 - Fredag (top left in blue ?)

And we are stuck with Tamati !

(Although Toni Stephenson and Rene are not bad)

Yeah - shame Toni has left to "have a family". I reckon Rene could be a bit of a handful given her performance on some of the late night forecasts!

Still, they do stop my seaweed getting soft!

coldfront
17-01-2011, 09:09 PM
Aha found the flaw in your plan, its not NIWA who do the weather forecasting its metservice

A minor technicality :badpc:

I had a laugh with the forecast yesterday for the TNP! The predicted weather updated at 630am said Fine then Cloudy periods in the afternoon and Winds up to 70kph.

Funny that we were up there at 830am and erm it was misty and drizzly and calm, the day cleared to a fine cloudless day with a moderate breeze :lol:
Then again I deal with mountain forecasts and weather and you can bet your last dollar the actual weather will throw a surprise at you.

gary67
18-01-2011, 08:55 AM
Aye we have the rain but the gales have not arrived, just looked out the window to see 4 bedraggled hens wandering around the section

BobM
18-01-2011, 08:49 PM
Aye we have the rain but the gales have not arrived, just looked out the window to see 4 bedraggled hens wandering around the section

If your chooks are as smart as the snails over here, they would be climbing up the side of the house, just a bit higher than the piece of seaweed. :D :D

DeSade
18-01-2011, 09:27 PM
Its pissing down here and expected to do so for three days.

gary67
19-01-2011, 07:56 AM
Rains gone sunshine again today

johcar
19-01-2011, 08:14 AM
Clearing here in Auckland too - all we've had is light rain, and a breeze with the usual 127% humidity.

Another weather non-event, as far as this side of the Bombays is concerned...

gary67
19-01-2011, 08:51 AM
Well we did get 40mm in 36 hours

Trev
19-01-2011, 09:40 AM
We had a few spittles of rain yesterday and a bit of wind last night a bit of a breeze blowing at the moment sunny and a temp of 30C.
:)

coldfront
19-01-2011, 12:33 PM
Well we did get 40mm in 36 hours

We got 32mm between 6pm and 6am!

Great timing we had a small scrub fire to deal with a 4pm being fanned by those strong gusty winds, the rainfalling heavily couldnt have been timed better. Another half wit ignoring a fire restriction and thinking the could contain an open fire when its blowing a gale :groan:

coldfront
23-01-2011, 08:13 PM
Sooooo is this summer wet enough for you yet :thumbs:

johcar
23-01-2011, 08:31 PM
:D Minor blip...

:pf1mobmini:

plod
23-01-2011, 08:54 PM
:D Minor blip...

:pf1mobmini:
No cycling today john? I see your favorite route was under water

johcar
23-01-2011, 09:10 PM
:) Not too worried about the water. More concerned about the wind today...

:pf1mobmini:

Twelvevolts
23-01-2011, 11:48 PM
I can only hope this rain that is persisting down here in Wellington is not evident in Auckland next Saturday night. I got my hawaiian shirt yesterday for the Jimmy Buffett concert on the wharf and it won't look too good in a rain storm. :horrified

pcuser42
24-01-2011, 07:55 AM
No cycling today john? I see your favorite route was under water

And the railway was still above water :D :p

gary67
24-01-2011, 08:13 AM
Only 8mm here yesterday afternoon and overnight